What the title says. I think there is still a long way for that to happen but i’ve been hopeful. What do you think?
Being on the internet used to be not cool.
Email and www. … .com was as foreign to the mainstream as the Fediverse is to the mainstream today.
The nerds build cool shit, the corporations chase the hot new thing to milk every last dollar out of the mainstream who want the cool new toys, and the mainstream inevitably ruins the cool new toy because they don’t understand how or why it was made in the first place.
This is the way of human nature. It has played out on the internet since the start (and probably well before that) and it will probably play out again on the fefiverse (just look at Meta).
shit, meta has no place in the fediverse. Evil bastards.
100%, and their advertisers don’t either, however do their users have a place in the Fediverse?
Of course, if they can figure out how to get past the sign in spinner buahahahaha
Absolutely not in their current formats.
Sign up needs to be simplified enough that your gran could do it and we need way more professional UIs. After those two things, it could happen.
It’s possible. I think the biggest obstacle is that the corporations feeding on people’s data are not going to just stand by while it happens.
Right now? Absolutely not. The platform itself is insanely buggy, normies still can’t wrap their heads around federation, and the big instances are only just beginning to stabilize and take shape.
But long term yes, I’m very bullish, and it’s for this simple fact: this is only the beginning of enshittification. All those r/NBA whiners you saw bitching on Reddit about the protests are gonna have their “leopards ate my face” moment when spez decides to start charging $14.99 a month for the privilege of subscribing to more than three subreddits at a time or some shit.
As many have said, interest rates are high and the gravy train has stopped running. This means the only way these huge platforms with massive server costs are going to survive is by making a profit, and they can’t do that without resorting to Twitter Blue-like subscriptions.
If people want to consoom and shitpost for free, at some point they will have to end up here in the fediverse, where the costs of running such a huge platform can be distributed among a bunch of large and medium-sized instances, which will probably be mainly funded by donations.
I think this is the beginning of a big transition, as big as the one from web 1.0 to 2.0. And ironically it’s gonna look a lot more like the internet of old than the era of massive social media platforms.
I like how in your point of view it appears (please correct me if I’m putting words in your mouth or misrepresenting your position) that the platform getting better would be nice but it’s actually not that relevant compared to the fact that other platforms are getting worse and will likely continue to do so as they prioritize shareholders over users.
It’s like a reverse marathon where you win by not running backwards as fast as everyone else. A leisurely stroll forwards is like moving at super speed.
What makes you so confident users won’t by and large accept the charges and boot from large social media platforms? Debatably piracy and a home media server have a lot of the same pros as Lemmy and the Fediverse. For the most part, however, people tend to cough up the 10-25 dollars for a streaming service. It’s not because of any practical reasons, at least directly. The true decider is cultural and societal attitudes towards the platforms providing a service. People practically don’t pirate because of the learning curve, but realistically don’t pirate because of their preconceived notions surrounding the practice. Maybe they think it’s wrong. Maybe they think it’s too hard. Maybe it just feels like too much work to set up. Maybe the communities feel too insular. Whatever the reason, it’s fundamentally because of some idea or feeling they have surrounding the medium. Who’s to say these big tech companies won’t successfully execute their goal, and push a larger cultural shift to make the idea of subscription social media more appealing to the average user than the idea of a clunky service using ActivityPub. Maybe the narrative of these spaces being too techbro-y gets pushed, and they garner a similar reputation in the public eye that piracy communities have. It could be seen just like streaming services and piracy. The public could be convinced of the value of familiarity and convenience. Has great work been done to fight against this corpo push lately? Absolutely. But don’t look at these “blatant missteps” that places like reddit and twitter have experienced as of late as omens of an imminent downfall of centralized, capitalist social media. Rather, look at it as a warning sign. A warning sign that heralds the first in a long, deliberate line of many who will follow in those footsteps, gradually pushing the Overton Window surrounding these prices towards their goal. Today Reddit and Twitter are the bad guys so that tomorrow Meta and others can make the same moves, with the added benefit of “it’s just not our choice, we must make these changes to remain viable in the current market.” In the eyes of many, not all, but the majority; this is an absolution. They will be able to succeed. They know this, that’s why they’re doing it and it’s happening now. The Fediverse and a free net will not survive unless the battle can be won in the public consciousness. We must overcome the significant hurdles between federated software design and mass adoption. We must take a direct, meaningful, and effective course of action to directly fight against this, it will not passively be won.
EDIT: Typo; missing word “Rather, look at it [as] a warning sign.”
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As long as you all stay here, I’m happy.
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Lemmy has a long way to go in terms of user experience before it can effectively compete with Reddit. The majority of new accounts in the last weeks have been spite users. That is, they’re here not because they love Lemmy - but because they hate Reddit.
That’s not a bad thing, per say. It doesn’t matter how people get here. It’s more important that they have a good reason to stay.
And the average user doesn’t care if something is federated or centralized. They just want a product that works and is simple to grasp. In my opinion, app developers are going to be the gamechanger Lemmy needs Stuff like Memmy (on the iOS app store today!), Mlem, Liftoff, Thunder are pretty much better than the official Reddit app. And that’s how most people consume content these days. When there’s no enshitification ads or microtransactions - there’s clearly going to be a winning experience.
It’ll take time, but as more Federation communities build - the less Reddit is necessary. As well, it usually takes a long time before people start catching on that the tools they once loved have turned to into bots and spam.
Mastodon is in it’s 7th year, and has like 8 million active users. Twitter had 200 million users by it’s 7th year. On one hand, Mastodon is the biggest Federation app. On the other, Twitter was 25x as large. Of course, Twitter is no longer the relevant “town hall” it once was - and is hemorrhaging users and respect. So who knows. It only takes a few celebrity endorsements to get countless folks switching. Who knows
I sure as hell hope not.
To me, that’s like looking around a great little cafe with terrific food and saying, “Do you think this could ever become McDonalds?”
Why would I want that?
Yea that’s a good point. I want it to be popular enough to have a good time and business to thrive but I don’t need it to have all the users from previous places. A smaller, more involved community is good for me
Yes please. First thing I had to do on new Reddit accounts was always unsubscribe from the giant, bot-infested communities.
What is crazy is that I feel like Lemmy is already approaching that fun size, you know? There’s a steady flow of content and comments. But it’s not full of shit yet.
Personally I would love to see it grow by enough that some of my favorite types of communities (specially state-specific and sports team specific) can thrive. But I am really not interested in Lemmy becoming big enough to rival centralized alternative platforms like reddit. Being that large brings far too much baggage along for the ride.
I definitely feel that it is almost there. Most enthusiat forums are filled with millions of users, but a couple thousand max. Dedicated users and some casual users would be best for this place to get to where it needs to be
Because of quarterly profits. We have to hit those KPIs!
But, yeah. Honestly, I’m fucking done with mass appeal websites. You know what else is mass appeal? Reality television and pop music. Let the idiots have TikTok, Instagram and Twitter, that should be enough for them.
Yes, I learned not to advertise to anyone about a great thing. Idiots would flood and troll leading to decline. But you’d still want some diversity of opinions and not create an echo chamber.
fuck dude I hope not. The best part of Lemmy to me is the fact that it’s not as big as the others, and what Lemmy gives me is that same feeling of freedom websites in the 2000s and early 2010s felt like they had.
This is true. There’s so little threads, you can follow something that was posted a day or two ago and chime in just like the discussion boards of old.
My biggest fear is that it develops a “hive-mind”.
Before the migration, lemmy.ml was the biggest instance, and is explicitly communist.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for communism, but I don’t want to be part of a circle-jerk and read about it every day.
Agreed. Either way - I’m just happy to see they content flourishing here. Just regular-ass shit.
I hope it does, but before that we need a more stable server, horizontal scalable, and better apps, they are being worked on
I think anyone who was around, and online, before reddit/twitter/Facebook became the consolidated social media behemoths that they are, are willing to learn something new. The before-times were replete with smaller communities where your internet handle was the only real source of continuity (and even then, only if you wanted it to be).
But those whose ONLY experience of online discourse is the big 3? It’s a lot to adjust to. I don’t know if this is what will hit critical mass, but then, maybe that’s setting the wrong goal to begin with. Can the communities connected here be self-sustaining for a time, regardless? Definitely.
My guess this whole time is that investors want to 1) capture the Facebook/boomer/Candy Crush crowd and 2) let anyone (foreign entities) pay to peddle influence whether political or otherwise.
Pump and dump.
Reddit will be circling the drain after the 2024 US election, is my estimation.
I don’t think you need to have the largest following to have great value, even lemmy as it is right now feels great. I’ll actually want to dive into comment sections compared to the endless scrolling on reddit.
As long as there’s enough people using a platform for a variety of ideas and experience in topics, I think that’s good enough for me.
I think there’s good chance for Lemmy and mastodon to become mainstream but I don’t they can replace their centralized counterparts. Mainly because I think that the social media in its current form is changing.
While platforms like Reddit, Twitter, Facebook and Tiktok are likely not going anywhere for a while, each time these platforms break the trust of their users the more cracks start to form to the service that leak out users. Some of these users will look for something new, some of these users will look for alternate services, some of these users will create their own services.
Many of these platforms rely on the attention economy, so all it really takes to make these platforms struggle is to divide that attention more and more to competitive platforms and services. This fragmentation has been happening for years now with people dividing their attention between multiple services like reddit, twitter, discord, facebook, tiktok, snapchat and whatnot. Now creating similar service for smaller audience is easier than ever and with A.I tools it’ll probably get even more easier.
Its a bit similar to video games and live services, with competition for players attention getting more fierce by the day.
What I keep wondering about is what if Reddit changes their app to be like Apollo or RiF? Will they get desperate and self aware enough to give people what they want? Is this and other apps doing copy-cat reddit doing this because we want to force change? I wonder which way the future will take this race?
Only if we fix the servers and reduce the bugs.
I don’t really think that Lemmy or Mastodon will really replace their counterparts. At least not for now. As many have already said, the federation system is too complex for many non-technical people. It would take something like a de facto standard app, that abstracts everything federation related away and make it feel like another centralised solution.
Another point for me is the searchability of federated systems. Say you are searching for a technical problem right now, google will surely bring you to a related subreddit in just seconds. I have yet to see a Lemmy related search result.
I think it remains to be seen. The rapid growth of .world has been the first real production test of how the platform handles more users and content. Amazing work by the team, but there are a lot of rough edges and it is a new platform with a lot of unknowns.
The things that spring to mind for me are:
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Sign up needs to be streamlined and made more simple, and find a way to not overload individual servers without just randomly assigning people to instances.
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Live defects, bugs and things feeling rough around the edges.
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Back-end build and scaling.
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Duplicate communities across instances.
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Account migration between instances.
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Data retention past x period - how will various instances handle this with a large number of users.
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GDPR and data request compliance from individuals, governments, etc.
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Funding the costs and resources associated with rapid, large growth. How do people know what their money is going to fund? I think there needs to be real transparency, public roadmaps and backlogs and understand how / if admins are accountable.
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How the platform and users will respond to large corporations or even individual admins on instances adding adverts, using / selling user data in ways the userbase do not expect.
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Not everyone who left Digg went to reddit, and not everyone who left Myspace went to Facebook. “Replacing” reddit should never be the goal, it should be “be better than reddit”.
If this is ever to go mainstream, what we should be concerned about is making good, high quality original content. If people see us having fun and being nice here, they’ll want to join in too.
